U.S. Conflict with Iran

U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026, have sparked a wide-reaching regional conflict, with ongoing U.S. and Israeli air operations in Iran and Iranian retaliatory strikes on a range of targets in a number of countries and threats and attacks that have largely halted maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. In announcing the onset of U.S. strikes, President Donald J. Trump said that the U.S. goal was to “eliminate imminent threats from the Iranian regime.” U.S. officials have articulated a number of specific military objectives, including destroying Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal and program; destroying Iran’s navy; ending Iran’s support for terrorist groups; and ensuring that Iran does not acquire a nuclear weapon. President Trump has also framed U.S. and Israeli military action as potentially serving to weaken the regime enough to facilitate its collapse or overthrow by a popular revolt. U.S. and Israeli military strikes appear to have significantly degraded Iran’s military; it remains unclear whether there may be circumstances under which the United States might deem key threats from the regime to have been eliminated if the regime itself remains in place in some form. Iranian leaders (including new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, whose predecessor and father Ali Khamenei was killed on February 28) appear to regard this conflict as an existential threat to the regime and Iran has undertaken unprecedented attacks against Arab Gulf neighbors, presumably to put pressure on the United States. Since Iranian threats and attacks on commercial shipping in the earliest days of the conflict, commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively halted, leading to large and potentially compounding disruptions to the global markets for oil, natural gas, and other commodities. Iran’s asymmetric capabilities may make opening the Strait to unrestricted commercial traffic by military means challenging. The conflict has also featured attacks by Iran-aligned Iraqi groups on U.S. and other targets and has reignited war in Lebanon, where Israel has initiated major military operations prompted in part by attacks from Hezbollah. The conflict raises longer-term questions about the future of U.S. policy in the Middle East, where other governments in the region, including those with which the U.S. has partnered, may weigh the potential benefits of continued or enhanced cooperation with the United States (including to contain or combat Iran) against the potential for retaliation, economic disruption, and domestic uncertainty that may be associated with future U.S. and/or -Israeli confrontations with Iran. Potential outcomes to the conflict include the following possible scenarios, which are not necessarily mutually exclusive: Uneasy Ceasefire. Because of economic or other pressures, as well as the considerable damage already inflicted on Iran and throughout the region, U.S. and Iranian leaders could conclude that the cost of continuing military action bears diminishing returns and decide to cease active hostilities without broader agreement. Negotiated Settlement. U.S. and Iranian leaders had previously appeared to support efforts to reach a negotiated settlement on issues of longstanding U.S.-Iran dispute, and at times during the current conflict have expressed some support for an accord favorable to their respective goals. It is possible that one or both sides could assess at a certain point that their interests are better served by a formal agreement, rather than by continued military action. Expanded Military Action. U.S. leaders could expand military operations. The nature, scope, and implications of such a scenario could vary depending on whether U.S. or other forces decide to extend or expand the volume of strikes or types of targets selected, or whether the United States or others introduce ground forces or attempt to displace and occupy some portions of Iran’s territory. Fall of Iranian Government. U.S. and Israeli military action, including the killing of senior Iranian leaders and the destruction of some infrastructure associated with the regime’s domestic security apparatus, could create conditions more favorable to the collapse of the Islamic Republic. The fall of the Islamic Republic could lead to multiple outcomes, including a new government or a more chaotic situation. Depending on the course of the conflict, including the scenarios outlined above or parts of them, Congress may assess U.S. national security priorities and deploy various legislative and oversight tools to support, reject, or seek to modify the Administration’s approach to Iran and the region. Present and potential future issues for Congress include proposed U.S. arms sales to regional partners; supplemental appropriations; the restriction or authorization of the use of U.S. military force; oversight of possible negotiations and resulting agreements; U.S. sanctions on Iran; and U.S. assistance for entities inside Iran or elsewhere in the region.